AMI 2.70% 19.0¢ aurelia metals limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report March 2020, page-39

  1. 613 Posts.
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    Just trying to add some context.

    IMHO, market is looking in the rear view mirror and not seeing what's ahead for Aurelia.

    2021 they will be mining very high grade ore and OCF will cover entire market cap of Aurelia. Assuming US$400-$500/t NSR (roughly 25-30% ZnEq or 8-10 g/t AuEq) and nameplate capacity 1.3Mtpa, that is operating cash flow between US$200M-$325M. Aurelia current market cap A$310M or US$205M.

    Look at these ridiculous runs of high grade at Chronos and Kairos:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2127/2127908-9a380da126ab18d06bde9ad4a4e98d81.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2127/2127910-ce5d0f98edef0c97392b5f2d21828c22.jpg


    Then you've got Federation where I estimate up to 20Mt of resource and around 8Mt of h/g (US$400-$500/t NSR). Again, Adriatic Metals entire A$215M market cap (and more) is underwitten by Rupice which is 9Mt of US$400-$500/t NSR rocks.

    So to recap... at current prices, you are paying less than 1x 2021 EBITDA and getting all the resource upside for free. Mining companies typically get 4-6x multiples, especially if they have a mine life of over 10 years. I believe Federation will feed Hera for at least another 10 years, if not 20+

    On top of all this, Aurelia has a healthy cash balance with no debt. To me, this presents a clear assymetric risk/reward opportunity for forward looking investors.
 
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