AVZ avz minerals limited

Ann: AVZ Delivers Highly Positive DFS for Manono Project, page-396

  1. 9,290 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 19107
    I take your points, but lets get to the market changes. Yes the market changes, so lets look at a few examples:

    1. Delay in DFS by LTR by now one year, and move to another mineral commodity seeking to feed on nearology (despite its new found tenements been 60 km away). Good or bad?? What is your view on the plus billion $ TO figures flouted on that board regularly by posters as I know you are a holder of LTR btw?
    2. PLS - enough said as to what they said in the DFS and where are they now. Good or bad, and how have market conditions impacted that and their expansion plans?
    3. A40 - enough said there too. Good or bad - it is obvious it is bad and a reflection of market conditions that will impact high cost producers?
    4. AJM - they are probably ahead of PLS in IMO getting back to profitabilty. Good or bad?
    5. Whilst I don't see lithium prices ever returning to the hey days of 2017/18, where do you think they will settle and how will they impact (proposed) producers that are high cost, either thorugh having high waste to ore ratios, deep resources, low Li20 content in their resource? Ultimately it is about economics, and I know you have said in teh past the AVZ resource is good.
    6. And as per my earlier post of today, do you see Chinese honouring offtakes, and what role do you see Europeans in future supply chains in EVs around setting upgigafactories and chemcial converter plants in China?
    7. Have you ever owned or traded AVZ, given it seems to be one of the most talked about stocks on teh ASX and seems to have numerous peaks and troughs.? Just intriqued there.

    In terms of the 2019 date, well I think at the time back in late 2017 and early 2018 when it was floated it was ambitous target given they still hadn't started drilling to identify a measured and indicated resource because you can only base a DFS on measured and indicated resources. I can find posts back then saying I thought the production date would be in the 2020s, and even now I am saying, whilst AVZ will be in production this side of 2025, I would be pleasantly surprised if they hit a 2022 production start date.

    You have had an interest in posting in AVZ since 2017, as I found a post I actually replied to you back then. I just wonder whether you have ever traded AVZ since you have been around for a while by the looks of it commenting here? Since 2017, be interested in your comments more holistically around the lithium industry itself and where you think things went wrong for not only AVZ in meeting timelines, but also stocks you held like PLS who clearly had outcomes that were not in line with their DFS back in 2017, and your views on why.

    What I guess makes you annoying to some here, is you you look at AVZ's issues, in some parts like getting to market in 2019 or even 2020, as been unrelated to demand/supply conditions which are best illustrated by what is happening to established producers. I get you don't like AVZ because of your views around sovereign risk in the DRC and your view it doesn't have a transport solution, which I disagree with you on that element, but there are other elements on your comments that are broader to AVZ per se and are more relevant for the whole lithium industry.

    Not to mention that 2019 date was spruiked by KE and friends, who has found his way onto my list as someone I would never invest in any of his companies btw - and I suspect they had a very very very different agenda to what someone with no agenda may have put forward as a more reasonable timeframe to market back in 2017/18.

    Yes management need to improve here. Whilst they have improved since KE's days, well they stll need to improve IMO. I get that - but ultimately it is about supply versus demand and scope for AVZ to enter the market. As per: Post #: 43657165

    Now if you are going to throw a few stones, you need to be a lot more open with your response and deal with the questions above as well. In isolation it would appear too me you don't like AVZ, i.e. I get that, but for fairness you need to put things in context as well, which to be frank you don't do. I also recognise that some ofyur responses maybe a response to other AVZ holders you believe are baiting you.

    At the end of the day, your view on why you think AVZ won't get to mining is because of sovereign risk and transport costs, views you have held since 2017 by the looks of it. I disagree, and time will tell who is right, and that will depend on when market conditions improve. Refer embedded post above. The test is semantics, but ultimately it is about supply/demand conditions and an improving spodumene price (and I also hope that improves soon orelse there may be a few more casualties in the industry to just A40). When the market conditions improve I see hard rock players (and Argentinian brines) taking advantage, given I don't think the water issues for Atacama will be addressed anytime soon IMO, but that is an assumption and underlying guess.

    But yes agree, AVZ management have missed timelines and need to improve, and especially around putting in timelines that are achievable based on market conditions.

    All IMO
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.