sedco 703 update, page-15

Gentlemen - Average to Above Average Cyclone Outlook - BUT NOT BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Outlook for tropical cyclone season for North West Australia

Issued 20 October 2008
Weather Bureau Warns of Early Cyclone Risk
People in Western Australia’s northwest are being urged to ensure they are ready for the upcoming cyclone season. “This season there is a higher-than-normal risk of a pre-Christmas tropical cyclone and with the cyclone season rapidly approaching it is important that residents start preparations immediately.” explained Andrew Burton, Manager of Severe Weather Services.

There were four cyclones in the waters off Northwest Australia last season. TC Nicholas crossed the coast near Coral Bay as a Category 1 cyclone and Pancho produced flooding while it was still well offshore, but overall the impacts were minor. “With the likelihood of early activity, we expect to see a greater number of cyclones this season. A total of around 5 to 7 cyclones are expected and it is likely we’ll see around two coastal impacts with one of them being severe” Mr. Burton said. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia. “The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be suitably prepared” he said. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

Current high values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest there is likely to be an early start to the season with an increased risk of an early coastal crossing. However, climate modeling suggests that sea surface temperatures will remain near normal across the Pacific this summer and that the atmosphere will remain in a neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state for the coming cyclone season. This means it is likely to be an average to slightly above average season overall.

Details of the 2008/2009 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

Likelihood of a cyclone off the northwest coast before Christmas and a higher than usual risk of an early season coastal impact.
5 to 7 cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is 5).
Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.
Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
For further information and weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.