The pitched election battle between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain will be historic regardless who wins. But business leaders are watching other Congressional contests and state ballot issues as well.
As polls closed in the two-dozen odd states in the nation’s Eastern time zone, early patterns began to emerge with Obama racing to a commanding early lead.
Obama won Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21), New Jersey (15), Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7) Vermont (3), New Hampshire (4), Maine (4) and the District of Columbia (3). McCain took Tennessee (11) Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8) and Oklahoma (7), while Ohio and Indiana were too close to call, based on NBC projections.
"Pennsylvania is a body blow to John McCain if you look at the polls where they were before he needed to win a Democratic state in order to take away the expected gains Obama would win in the Republican states," said Keith Boykin, a former Clinton White House aide.
On the Congressional level, Democrats notched three early Senate victories in Virginia, West Virginia and New Hampshire, underscoring the key question going into election night: To what extent will the Democratic Party increase its existing majority?
“The individual races are much less significant than the larger numbers and patterns,” says Thomas Mann, of the Brookings Institution.
On an individual race level, few if any big-name incumbents are likely to be ousted from the House or Senate, other than Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, who was recently convicted on felony charges.
As for specific economic initiatives, most of the debate centers on the bailout, economy and taxes at the national level. But a couple of states, California included, have noteworthy ballot issues this year.
"It's light year," says Kim Reuben, public finance economist at the Urban Institute, who adds, most initiatives have little chance of passing in the current environment. “If people had known what was going on with the bond and stock markets some of these of these things wouldn’t have gotten on the ballot.”
Another thing that state ballot issues and Congressional races have in common is that the unusually high voter turnout will turn the tide in many cases.
So, as America goes to the polls and the election results trickle in, here’s a need-to-know guide:
Congress
In the House, where Democrats now hold 236 out of the 435 seats, pundits on both sides of the political aisle expect Democrats to add 20-30 seats. On the Senate side, it could be six to eight slots, taking the Democrats tantalizingly close to the 60-seat level needed to block filibusters.
The Numbers Game in the Senate ...
“Republicans anticipated a bad year and therefore had a large number of retirements, which created open seats that are giving Democrats an excellent chance,” says Mann of Brookings.
John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute sees “seven seats the GOP has deep trouble in” and thinks Democrats can easily get to 58 in the Senate.
In West Virginia, incumbent Democrat Jay Rockefeller won re-election, based on NBC projections.
In one of three open-contest states, Virginia Democrat Mark Warner defeated another former governor, Jim Gilmore, by a healthy margin. Warner, who was mentioned as a vice presidential candidate, will assume the seat of John Warner, one of several prominent Republicans who chose not to seek re-election.
Democrats are likely to capture open seats in New Mexico and Colorado. Republicans John Sununu of New Hampshire and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina are also most vulnerable to defeat, as is Gordon Smith of Oregon.
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, whose popularity suffered because of voter backlash over the financial bailout, seemed to be getting a boost from McCain's decisive victory in the state.
Three othere who started the day on the somewhat-endangered species list are Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who’s facing a serious challenge from comedian and author Al Franken and a third-party candidate; Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, who defeated Max Cleland with what many consider appalling attack-and-slur tactics in 2002, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who was named to replace Trent Lott when he retired suddenly.
Then, of course, there’s Stevens of Alaska.
“Some on the GOP side were questionable, but are now probably safe,” says Tom Schatz, president of Citizens Against Government waste.
Schatz and others don’t expect any Democratic Senator to lose a seat, unless its Joe Biden of Delaware, who’ll step down upon re-election, if he becomes Vice President.
And for the very same reason, you can expect the one and only major change in committee chairs, because someone will have to replace Biden at the helm of the Foreign Relations Committee.
... And in the House
The shakeup on the House side could be more dramatic, says Fortier of AEI, if for the first time in more than 50 years, Democrats win 30 or more house seats in consecutive elections.
“I do think you'll see some fairly significant changes in the House Republican leadership.”
He says Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) is likely to be challenged by Eric Cantor (Va.) and lose his post.
The same goes for Republican Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri, who led the GOP support for the hasty bailout of the financial services industry.
“They’ll be seen as failing, there will be a sense that they need to clean house,” says Brandon Arnold of the Cato Institute.
Democrats, however, may not be without casualties or even awkward situations.
In the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, 17-term House veteran Jon Murtha is in a tight race, after calling some of constituents “racist.”
And Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who’ll be 91-years-old after the election, is resisting quiet calls to resign because of his age. At the same time, his likely successor, Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, says he won’t push him out of the chairmanship.
States in Focus
If the economy is now the big issue on a national level, it’s likely to have play a more indirect role on a state one.
The big items on state ballots this year are bond issues, not the usual taxpayer bill of rights proposals.
Click here for the complete list of state ballot issues.
