hbos takeover on track, page-33

texas-given these are all historical figures,rapid declines
have occurred in the past 6months,that being the most recent valuation period.
given this is a global business
interest rates are subject to movement,and currency requires significant hedging to get a flat result.

i would suggest the asset book might have declined to 2.52-2.38 with 73mill in cash it leaves asset sales as the next call.

vcs capital debt is unlikely to be resolved,writedowns will
require an offset via asset sales,which are unlikely to be
acheived at profitable levels.

so what does all this mean,threat to lvr,higher int. rates downgraded credit rating,inability to raise cash,even at 200mill in reserves,leaves little or no shareholder value in the medium term read 3-5years.

and it is not just vpg very good companys have a low historical sp.

and note all the companys that have gone into administration you should note how little shareholder value is left and even less is likely to be redeemed.

the next step with rising unemployment in australia,the resource sector being at the forefront and those involved
having relatively high incomes at a national level,presumably these individuals will have leveraged their incomes into asset debt,assets bought at higher prices than they are likely to acheive in the current climate,w.a. is a case in point along with country towns impacted by the resource boom,then we have the precursor
for significant asset devaluation.

expand this across the world stage ,growth decline in a consumer driven society affects everyone,except the garbage tip.

so this is not about regurgitating what directors have provided in their report,its all about considering the probability of outcomes,in vpgs case the market has spoken
and personally i dont see any short term value beyond trading ,price steps make this stock illiquid,buy and hold would require considerable conviction,which frankly i dont share,trashed stocks are generally trash and vpg fits the definition.

wait for the next ann.something like afg unable to realise appropriate values,wish to maintain shareholder value,forward projections show growing debt need to refinance due to poor fund performance etc,etc,etc

vpg have no margin of safety,only hope,and a very poor friend is hope

i did buy mof recently,very different,good disclosure and higher stated gearing.