Thanks for the quick update @wombat777 - that makes much more sense to me.
5% of a blockbuster is pretty conservative, but at least the figures are more in range
i.e. CHF is almost a factor of 10 more than aGVHD
Also, given that FDA granted priority review on aGVHD, I can't see how the probability is still 50%
But, as per the base reports, there's plenty room for raising the TP and/or valuation - as Mesoblast progresses
COVID-19 ARDS and ARDS Share Price Scenarios, page-241
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