anyone care to offer analysis of any sort, page-5

Hi Wasa,

Its difficult to see where SUR will be in two years time. It will be dependant on how much additional dilution there will be between now and then and if we have seen oil at its lowest price (and of course success in thailand and elsewhere)

Assuming the end game is 20,000 BOPD (SRB kicks in heavily) for the current CVN thai campaign. In the current market conditions you should expect CVN with its 40% share (not 50% share that SUR/CVN have) would be trading at the very least at 50 cents... 80 cents(its previous high) and $1 not being outside the realms of possibility

so currently with SUR around 1/3 shares (will change with further dilution) on issue and a 50% rather than 40% share in thailand, then $0.50 (share price) x 3 (relative shares on issue) x 50/40 (share of thailand operations) ~ $1.90

So this equation goes up as CVN share price goes up
and down as the number of shares on issue increases

You can be sure that there will be traders who will look at the CVN / SUR joint venture and as it gets underway (successfully) will trade the relative difference between the two companies share prices taking these factors into consideration

My gut feeling is there will be about 2/3 the shares on issue and the operational share (50/50) will remain the same(but that may even change) and CVN will be $1 when at 20,000 BOPD

so that will be 1.0 x 3/2 x 50/40 ~ $1.9 once again!

Hopefully I am being very conservative at $1 valuation!

I hope I'm right as well! At the current price of SUR it is about 2 cent CVN shares. Now, who out there would not like to have a punt at another CVN story at 2 cents a share?

The block to the north I believe is producing at 20,000 and now to the east soon to be 20,000 BOPD and there is known oil in the CVN/SUR block

Thats why this is my favourite speccy at the moment, I hope it all holds together AND gets going soon