Some musings from me that no one wants? Please correct me if I'm completely off or wrong?
There's a great deal of FOMO happening today?
Some holders are unwilling to sell because they're holding a 100% winner? No proof required?
Buyers lining up at any price? No matter how potentially overvalued share price might be?
Restricted supply, near limitless demand? At least for today? Tomorrow is another story?
We all know what happens when demand completely overwhelms supply? At least for today?
All aboard the FOMO hype train? Full speed ahead? Maybe? Maybe not? Let's wait and see?
Looking at the market capitalisation, a large degree of success has already been baked into it?
Anyway, let's wildly (and extremely roughly) assume the following:
A very overvalued / extremely high growth (low risk?) market expectation P/E ratio of 100?
Earnings from chips have a 50% profit margin after all expenses? $2 revenue, $1 all costs?
Except for chip production, operational expenses remain mostly flat (unlikely, but why not)?
Non-chip production costs, include paying management, especially LDN (who costs most)?
Non-chip production costs, max out at $10M (currently $8.4M?) a year (unlikely)?
Current share price: ~$0.067
Shares on issue: ~1.5B
Revenue = x
EPS = (0.5x - 10M ) / 1.5B
EPS * P/E ratio = Share price
A very high growth market expectation of the company giving a P/E ratio of 100 requires:
(( 0.5x - 10,000,000 ) / 1,500,000,000) * 100 = 0.067
Solving for x gives us: x = $22,010,000
This results in 22 million annual revenue
already being baked into the share price? Such that:
At a P/E ratio of 100 and a price of 6.7c the market has baked in $22M in annual revenue?And that was with a calculated high growth (low risk?) market expectation P/E ratio of 100?
Note that the company had a mere US$75,574 last year. That's quite the leap of faith?
The real question is (and please use facts and maths if you're going to give me an answer):
What market capitalisation value do you (the reader, which I assume is an educated investor that is well versed in financial analysis) place currently (today, no, not in the future, today please) on BrainChip given all the potential rewards, the potential risks, and all of the historical facts that the market is aware of (including that of the management of the company) to date? What should the market capitalisation (and by extension the share price) be worth, in terms of fair market value (fair being, neither overvalued or undervalued)?
If you're going to reply to this message, answer with maths please?
Oh, it took me a while to write this, the share price dropped? Unsurprisingly.
I wonder why nothing came of the following:
BrainChip Ships First BrainChip Accelerator To a Major European Car Maker for Evaluation in ADAS and AV Systems (October 24 2017)https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20171024/pdf/43nj2nthw3zzyb.pdfYou know, considerung the following:
BrainChip Announces the Availability of Advanced AI Intellectual Property (28 May 2019)https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190528/pdf/445fdzjhfs4nww.pdfWhy did the Major European Car Maker not want to evaluate the Akida AI IP further, hmm?
Did the Major European Car Maker look at the technology and decide: Thanks, but no thanks?
(20min delay)