china and iron ore, page-41

hey bush,

can i ask what ur personal opinion is on the mid to long term outlook for iron ore?

there's loads of articles at the moment saying that the iron ore boom is over, slowing chinese growth, X% price decreases, its a buyers market...and so on.

but given that UMC is looking at a 2011 timeframe, are we not immune to these daily/weekly/monthly sentiment swings??

i'll agree, getting funding gets trickier, and you dont want to get stuck in the MGX situation of selling ur soul to secure survival, but by en large the long term picture for iron ore will remain strong.
and there will always be access to capital, in some shape or form, for the quality projects. it may be costlier than we would all like, but it will be there.
a few extra basis points in funding costs is still better than a resource stuck in the ground!!

the way i see it, the majors will cut back 10-15% in the next year or 2, and then pick up those tonnes in year 3, 4 and 5 at todays price + x% (the value of x depending on how bullish you are)

maybe i have missed something, so please feel free to point me in the right direction, but i am not at all concerned about these production and demand cut backs, except in so far as they may influence the ability to gain access to funding.
other than that, i believe the dynamics of the iron ore sector will return.
those who have it will be able to sell it to those who dont.
lucky for us, thats us!!


all just my opinion of course...