ahug meeting, page-8

Nothing like an easy question!

I think in the $20 - $35 range and more likely at the lower end of the range. It's a wild guess really but I did try and put some logic into it which is below.

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Lets go with the worst case scenario:

- sale delayed or called off
- senior debt provider and / or AFG does not extend the loan and puts Alleasing into receivership
- receiver sells the business and gives funds to senior debt provider / receivers of AFG
- there is nothing left for AHUG holders
- AHUG holders pursue AFG over Letter Of Support and are told to join the queue of creditors.

Realistically speaking AHUG holders would probably get nothing. That's the threat.

Now if you were the receiver you'd probably like to get the sale dealt with quicker than that i.e. keep Alleasing as a going concern and get AHUG holders to agree to the sale.

When AFG was a going concern the amount on offer was about $50 all up with $40 or so now and $9 later. But that was AFG trying to avoid another further claims and remain a going concern.

I think the receivers will basically do the same thing - which is offer whatever they think they have to offer to get AHUG holders to agree to the sale to get it done quickly. It's just that the goal posts have moved now (no need to keep AFG as as a going concern).

The VWAP for the past six months is about $20 on volume of about 300k. The VWAP for the last 8 months is about $22 on volumre of $650k. In the last 12 months it is about $35 on volume of 900k. If $35 was offered I think most people would accept. At $20 I think you might get enough yes votes but it is far from guaranteed. So I'll guess somewhere in the $20 - $35 range and probably nearer $20 than $35.

Anyone got any other ideas?