Guys,
I'm hearing you but on the subject of the merger I take some comfort in how powerless I am. Sure I can vote against it for what it's worth but in the end it will be the top 20 (except KAH) who will have most of the say. There is some comfort in not having the pressure to make a decision.
Still, I am happy to discuss it I just don't know how practical it all is.
On the subject of value, it is not just the pounds it is the concentrations and this is where Rossing South shines. IT is all well and good saying "we have 100 million pounds in the ground" as many companies have done but if you must move three or four times as much dirt to get the same amount of Uranium then the economics don't stack up.
The grades that EXT have been getting are phenomenal. Even at IDA, GD012 was exceptionally rich in its grade.
If RIO can run a profitable business for 37 years with the low grades they have at Rossing can you imagine their profits with the grades at Rossing South?
What will they pay? Well of course they will try to pay as little as they can get away with but whereas you can question where loyalties lie with EXT or KAH one thing you cannot doubt and that is that all long term holders want to get as much for this as they possibly can.
SO even though you and I won't be part of the negotiation process we can be sure that we all share a common goal.
If you guys can make back-of-the-envelope calculations and come up with these figures think what a team of professionals will come up with when they take into account not only grades and pounds-in-the-ground but also what RIO does NOT need to pay for (ie a new plant, new infrastucture etc).
These people will also have current data on contract prices (not spot prices) and some understanding of the political advantage gained over BHP (which Tom Albanese alluded to) by becoming the world's biggest producer of Uranium (that could make BHP's current offer for RIO take-over look not-so-good). There is another advantage for RIO shareholders, it makes them worth more and therefore BHP would have to pay more.
So a resounding YES, YES a million times, it could go way, way higher when the final offer comes in.
One thing we all agree on and that is that we are on a winner, the only question is how much of a winner.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 324304 | 1.1¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.2¢ | 8267509 | 7 |
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8 | 2673000 | 0.010 |
7 | 5717366 | 0.009 |
11 | 7792440 | 0.008 |
7 | 3620863 | 0.007 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.012 | 8267509 | 7 |
0.013 | 4027200 | 5 |
0.014 | 1071428 | 2 |
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