aussie govt attitude to mret review, page-2

hi simcole,
Good question. I would have replied to your post earlier, but didn't notice it until now. IMO the government will keep MRET at its present 2%. Maintaining present levels is the path of least resistance. It allows the government to appear relatively respectful of the environment in an election year, and the 2% level shouldn't upset large energy consumers (the real figure in terms of actual usage is less than 2%). All this is neutral for PHY in terms of earnings. The catalyst for a significant surge in PHY's share price will come closer to election day. If Labour wins, then an increase of MRET to 5% is a given (if Labour didn't increase MRET to at least 5% the Greens and the Democrats would likely obstruct Labour sponsored legistlation in the senate). A second catalyst is PHY's full year results, which have the potential to surprise to the upside, especially if the $A continues to weaken against the $US.

PHY's share price had been drifting upwards recently until a U-seller stopped the momentum. I'm expecting this upward-momentum to begin again in the near term. PHY's fundamentals are excellent, and I'm expecting a slow, steady rise in the SP over the next six months. This stock is a solid long term buy.