Looks like you have contradicted yourself. You say that there are not enough US$ in the
USA? Then that means QE and printing more will not be harmful because more is needed
to fill the gaps because as you state most $notes are hoarded abroad.
Your argument is also too rational, the stock market is not a totally rational entity. It doesnt think like
that, it thinks with RISK, and with your analogy, there is no risk, just the inevitable because
you are focusing on the KNOWNS.
Everyone is already familiar about what youve written, that is all known knowns... including historical evidence
to prove your point. "Yea, Yea, we know, whatever", is what the risk takers will say.
RISK is in the FUTURE not the past or present. The market ALWAYS goes up after a crisis (as it
is already doing).
Betting on a dip somewhere in that period of retrace is just gambling.
Here is my own modest little formula :
Stock market = Economy + 9 months
In 9 months, the market is risking that the economy will continue to take-off. Will we see
the highs of Feb at the end of the year? I think thats what the market is expecting.
Good times ahead.
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