Lynas/Industry News, page-139

As suspected, not a clue to vindicate all the Chicken Little hysteria:

"U.S.-bound shipments of the magnets ................ rose to 4,593 tonnes last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, from 4,103 tonnes in 2018."

https://www.reuters.com/article/chi...ts-to-u-s-rise-12-from-year-ago-idUSL4N29U09C

Typical Composition of NdFeB Alloy

	Column 1	Column 2
0	Main Elements within NdFeb	Wight Percentage
1	Neodymium(Nd)	29% – 32%
2	Iron (Fe)	64.2% – 68.5%
3	Boron (B)	1.0% – 1.2%
4	Aluminum (Al)	0.2% – 0.4%
5	Niobium (Nb)	0.5% – 1%
6	Dysprosium (Dy)	0.8% – 1.2%

https://www.stanfordmagnets.com/the-production-of-ndfeb-magnets.html

So 4593tpa x 30% NdPr/NdO = 1378t + 344t (25% for losses in the manufacturing process, including machining) = 1722tpa.

4593t x 1% Dy = 46tpa but as Tb is often preferred with ~2x "strength" they would balance say 30t Dy & 10t Tb.

BTW, that provides a picture of the tiny mkt a bunch of wannabes have been pumping as vindication for their Dy mines following Jack's "heavies" BS > Punting Dy 2020, as smart as horseshoes 1920.

So IF the US had an NdFeB manufacturer capable of replacing 4593t of Chinese imports the BLJV will have no difficulty meeting demand for Dy/Tb from Lynas by-product stream.



Japanese NdPr/NdO demand to NdFeB shown as 6ktpa x ~90% Lynas supply 2019 = 5.4kt, just under CY production but well short of LynasNext nameplate 7200tpa.

That leaves 1800tpa available to meet US theoretical demand 1722tpa, without factoring the intended expansion to 10500tpa NdPr, +3300tpa, broadly equivalent to another 10ktpa NdFeB production which together with 5ktpa in the US would effectively displace 50% of the Dragon's NdFeB exports.

Lynas have proven they can do it, and relatively quickly, but can Govt's & downstream industry get their act together to the point of making it possible?

The Dragon knows it is very possible, just look at the price of NdPr.