AXM 0.00% 1.1¢ apex minerals nl

initial substantial shareholder notice, page-23

  1. 525 Posts.
    Jesimore posted, "fully funded with 100mil profit forcast per year with production days away."

    Tiger posted in response, "I have not seen any forecasts of such earnings. Where might I see these forecasts?"

    OK OK Jesimore, I found it. I have just listened to a podcast where Mark Bennett was talking about Apex. I might add I was quite impressed by Mark. He spoke matter of factly and didn't try too hard. I did detect a pommy accent but all the same he is my sort of guy.

    Anyway back to what Dr Bennett had to say. He stated in a brief financial overveiw that AXM had $62mil in bank & needed only $55mil to get production underway. And AXM would produce 200,000oz @ margin of AUD$500 and achieve AUD$100mil Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.

    So Jesimore you were correct. But But But. Mark Bennett qualified this forcast by stating "At current prices." Well, gold prices in April 08 were USD$900-$1000oz and the Aus dollar was 85-90c to US dollar. Thus quick calcs suggest the forecast on current gold price and value of aus dollar would be more like 200,000oz @ $300 = $60mil.

    The drop in gold and currency values since April is good reason for the decrease in AXM sp.

    Now, before all the AXM'ers send the linch mobs after me for running down AXM, might I say that all things considered imo AXM is a great value stock.

    If most analysts can be believed gold will be the first commodity to go up in value and the increase is already occurring. Also word on the ground at Wiluna is that AXM staff are pushing hard to commence production and it really is just days away.

    I do believe that AXM will very shortly be comfirmed as a commercial, profitable gold producing enterprise. If AXM can achieve even a conservative $40mil earnings with a P/E ratio of 8 the SP will be 82c.

    If production results and gold values are higher then the SP will be much higher and the $1 or even $2 mark this time next year is not ridiculous.

    I'm punting on gold prices rising in the near future and I have spent the last 2 days looking for other value gold stocks but I think I might buy a few more AXM shares while the current share price exists.

    Kind regards.

 
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