refinancing, page-11

Hi All

Shareprice may be doing down the "Matrix Road " however this is a far better operation and has some hidden assets that most seem to overlook.

Lets consider current hedge book for example.

They need to deliver 1,100 T per month till july 2010 and will recieve $7054AUD per T - at 30/6/08 was $49m underwater.

They have additional 450t per month to deliver from April 2009 to july 2010 at $7,940 AUD per t.

Rough Calcs give this as 22,000T at $7054aud & 6750T @ $7940AUD / T

Current spot is about $3660 US ( $5630 AUD per ton )

Hedge book is in the money by around $1424 per T on on 1st tranche ( $31.3m AUD ) & $2310 per ton on 2nd tranche ( $15.5m ) - total $46.8m ( similar to Minsec $45m isn't it ! )

At current spot of roughly $3660 US / $5630 AUD they are still able to make a reasonable surplus if hedge book was closed out ( last quarterly had cash cost of $1.08 US / $1.66 AUD vs cuurent AUD spot of approx $2.50lb - say 90c a LB AUD / 30,000t = approx 66mlbs / say $59m cash surplus - more than enough to pay off lady Annie debt in 2 years .

Also worth considering current ore under leech ( especially as we have an operating plant ) .

from start of operations to sept 2008 , total mining of ore was 2.2mt to 6/08 at .96% grade - total ton x grade = 21,120t in stockpile - use 90% for ultimate recovery = say 19,000T. Last quarter 740,000T at .73 % mined - 5400t or so - allow 90% - say 4800T stacked.

Gives at total of 23,800T of in theory recoverable copper under leach - produced since start to last quarter - 15,286 t - giving copper under leach of approx 8,500t - or at current spot ( say $5630 ) of $47m .

I will be happier once they announce refinance - however I can tell you that any finance is taking a lot longer to get ( housing / commercial / equipment ) than in recent memory. The fact they have run a trouble free operation since start up is what I think ( and hope ) will get them there .

Happy for anybody to point out if these figures are wrong - I have done this in a bit of a rush.



Cheers


Baraka