In relation to the specific date of 27 Nov, I'm primarily going off the observations of Terry Laundry (www.ttheory.com), though its also in sync with my general view of timing. He's been very accurate with his analysis of cycles and "T"s during this bear market.
We have been travelling in a downtrend channel since 6400 and IMO failed on the rally from 3690 to get back across the channel to retest the top for the 3rd time. This suggested to me a 3rd retest of the channel bottom at 3600, with a high chance of collapse to the bottom of the next channel down (probably 2800). We dropped 700pts from 4290 to 3610 in 9 trading days to the 17th, so allowing for a steep capitulation, 5-6 trading days (ie. to the 27th) to the bottom would be about right.
Yesterday we saw XAO break down at 3600 out of its channel of the last 9 months in IMO the start of the final drop. Though it looks like today we will probably rally to retest the channel edge from below at 3600 (possibly 3640). If its going to 2800 it should then fall away tomorrow after this retest.
FMG Price at posting:
$1.61 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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