The net spend is just leverage to hole depth and location. The same offshore well would require a multiple of the budget. A better way to have a crack at risked value post farm out is using the drill target figures
Assume
$5 Barrel oil equivalent value IVZ share 40% post farm out I took a guess at different COS based on previous wells.
Main Target Upper Angwa Chance of Success (COS or geological success) post Seismic = 20% 4.4 Tcf and 187 mmb (divide gas volume by 6 for barrels) 920 mboe
Secondary Target Pebbly Arkos COS = 10% 1.4 Tcf and 60 mmmb 293 mboe
Ive seen additional risked valuations add an additional recovery factor to these estimates to account for the target not fully translating into a 1C or 2C recoverable resource. Other valuations account for the primary target only. But then Ophir (and others) exceeded a stacked gas target by 55% so it can work both ways....Even accounting for main target only, lower recovery, lower COS, less well share its hard to massage a risked value for IVZ below $100M.
I think IVZ will end up with 700 to 800M shares fully diluted including performance options, a lot depends on what price they raise at pre drill.
