SP500 0.58% 2,958.8 standard & poor's 500

BBUS, page-5778

  1. 52 Posts.
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    Like many here, I have been challenged (unsuccessful) in getting the right entry and exit points. I'm writing this to remind myself (and you) that regardless of what we may observe from news, charts, financial research, economy, forums etc there are way too many inputs for our puny human minds to deal with. In that situation our primitive brain defers to our strongest bias because taking action when threatened was necessary to prevent getting eaten. In this case, shit hit the fan so we figured it would get worse and took a position in BBUS/BBOZ.

    A counter-point to a sustained market drop is:
    • I took a random small (3.7B) company listed on NASDAQ (EXPO), and the top shareholders owning 67% of the company are fund managers, mostly ETFs. It is likely that the ETF holders have no idea that they own part of this company, and whether it's prospects are poor or good. They simply add to it every month in their retirement fund / super contributions. The ETF's need to invest incoming funds, so shares continue to be purchased.

    • Anyone who thinks any of the liquidity injected into the market is coming from millennials with new trading accounts (or rampers) is kidding themselves - they aren't going to move anything over a micro-cap. The freshly printed USD goes to the banks, and the banks buy shares, so the sharemarket goes up, then the ETF's and funds soak up the liquidity as the banks sell into the strength.


    Take a look at Afterpay - the price isn't moved by individuals, it is moved by fund managers and banks shuffling positions around:https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2223/2223826-9a48b3641cd5f0bc467b5c53e4c7b998.jpg
    1https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2223/2223851-57d201b756b2114b777c825bbf567f12.jpgThat is about as simple as I can make it, and it required no crossover to how the real-world economy is faring.
    If the fed turns off the printers then the air goes to the top of the tyre, but they have stated they have no intention of doing that until safe to do so.
    2Just don't forget where we fit into this this casino:https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2223/2223837-1811b9e1751c92c075d542011f6d7e78.jpg


    Good luck picking your position, and don't spend too much time looking backwards over the charts for clues to what will happen next. Hope is free so on Monday...
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2223/2223906-99c1d531055d946327ad5a2f98461c3c.jpg

 
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