Tigermoth,
No 6. China may reopen exports
China has a new system for fertilizer exports based on two seasonal rates and a sliding tax system that ensure's fert will only be exported when international prices are both higher than domestic prices and domestic supply is in surplus. Its a smart new system and is effective Dec 1, but it only covers Urea, DAP and MAP.
For rock phosphate, the situation is very different. The export tax is set at 110% for all of 2009, but more importantly the total Chinese export quota is a maximum of 1.5 million tons. Chinese fert companies need go through a strenuous application procedure to get part of that quota, an interesting criteria is only rock phosphate classified as low to medium grade is considered for the quota. 1.5 million tons is a tiny share of the international market, China was exporting many multiples of that a few years ago.
Additionally, this is essentially a transition regulation, China is phasing out rock phosphate exports. This is a resource it wants to conserve.
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