who posted 40 cents, page-34

Magikol

This is not a case of the picture being painted badly by the majors.

Unfortunately, the situation appears to be considerably worse than is being painted by the majors. Both BHP and Rio stand to lose by revealing the true extent of the production cuts that will unfold: there's a $150B takeover in play.

Rio's ports off the Pilbara cost are a case in point. Eight berths available the other week: only three occupied. Twelve ships waiting in harbour, but not being allowed to dock without letters of credit backing them up.

Similar story for BHP, though not quite as bad. Jimblebar has been in total shut since Thursday last week with no word on when it plans to re-open. Orebody 18 similarly placed. Said to be due to a safety issue, but got to ask why no plant on site at Jimblebar?

Sure, there is a degree of positioning involved for up-coming price negotiations, but if steel mills haven't got the coin, then they haven't got the coin.

I've seen the FMG release, but want to read it again more closely before commenting further on what it means, and whether too much can be read into it.

IO stocks have the potential to get hammered in the next few months. Depending on your outlook, you can either get frightened or see it as an opportunity.

BUSH