Hi Frestootnik ...... the Seba video appears to be widely popular but I have been resistant to listening to it beyond the introduction based on the first three points.
1) that - as it took 13 years to significantly transition from horses to cars - the same time frame will apply to transition from ICE to electric vehicles.
- the equation just doesn’t work for me -partly because, back then, cars basically solved time-related problems that everyone who owned a horse was constantly dealing with - feeding, grooming, mucking out, stabling, putting the harness on, taking it off, veterinary bills, shoeing etc etc etc. ... and horses were slower.
Cars were tougher, beautifully inanimate, easier and they still are.
- Plus after reading a bit on various countries, the main incentive driving change seems to be government regulation and government assistance.
Unless the whole EV industry is able to genuinely price match or beat ICE it can only work in wide, pocket-conscious communities via subsidy . This was already proved when China stopped subsidising and when the Norwegian government threatened to.
2) Seba then explains the take up of smart phones was greater (100 times greater ?) than analysts predicted and leads straight into
3) self promotion for being right when they were wrong.
....that just put my back up . Does that mean he is right this time too?
And the millions of people who suddenly decided they wanted a new smart phone never had something in their pocket (or garage) that could already do the work of a smart phone...
so maybe this time in the ‘battle’ of Seba vs anyone who disagrees, Seba might be wrong ?
(although as said I peeled away after the self promotion ).
As far as your belief we are on the point of significant change over the next 12 to 18 months goes - I agree.
And Altura being in an accumulation phase? I hope so.
I have felt more confident knowing Shanshan is building a processing plant and it is great the price has gone up, and I am hoping for good news re exploration and some more visible offtake/contractual/partnership agreements.
