Running discussion on SP, page-29572

Though I'd doubt many would have the belief, foresight and/or patience to agree, the re-balancing of Global X LIT may have inadvertently done AVZ management & LT shareholders a favour IMHO.

After all, there is still the outstanding business of acquiring further interest in the project from Dathomir and/or Comminiere. A fair and reasonable price for an additional 5 - 20% of the project just became even more reasonable with a current SP of 5 - 6c. But if the SP was 10 or 15c, then 'fair and reasonable' could potentially be double, triple or even quadruple the current asking price IMHO.

It is worth remembering that project funding post DFS is, and has always been the responsibility of ALL Dathcom partners, thus the time is near for Dathomir and Comminiere to decide what percentage of the Manono project they wish to retain. The more they retain the larger their ongoing financial commitment to the project (including their share of raising up to US$535m in project finance) will be. Being state-owned, Comminiere could provide financial commitment/assistance to the project in various forms, but Dathomir IMO has less options.

In any case, IMO enormous value has once again been created for those market participants who have cash to deploy, as a result of the SP retreating by 20% in the last week or so.

AVZ Market Cap: A$147.5 m at 5.2c (lowest closing SP in over 2 months)
Enterprise value (EV) est: A$129m (US$89m)
Cash: ~$18m
Debt: Nil
EV per resource tonne last week was already by far the lowest amongst hardrock peers;



...and now a further 20% discount (to last week's AVZ valuation) can be applied.

GLTA

Cheers
Elpha