In the TPG-Vodafone merger the independent report does some extensive research on valuations of Telco's.
They came with 8.5 to 9 for Corporate earnings and 7 to 8 for retail, imo OptiComm fair long term valuation should be close to 8.5 to 9 because its wholesale, so i see it as about 50% overpriced on that valuation. It could be argued Uniti is similarly overpriced, which would balance itself out if it was an all script offer, rather than Cash as well.
Also, looking again at Opticomm's revenue, and RBS (NBN Tax), 58% of their $35.2m H1 revenue was recurring network earnings, so $20m recurring revenue from 70k active premises works out to be $24 per month wholesale per customer, a $7.10 per month tax is going to hurt margins, a lot.
Recently NBNCo got permission to reduce costs so they can compete with greenfield construction, so Opticomm one-off revenue could see increased competition as well.
So the long term view (ignoring one off revenue) Uniti is paying $532m for $40m recurring revenue... whose costs could increase by 25% of revenue in 2 weeks (or was NBN tax delayed)
In my view, its a good deal for Opticomm, but not Uniti.
UWL Price at posting:
$1.66 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
