Some thoughts/questions about AT1: Can anyone clarify why AT1 developed a new pregnancy test? Current pee-based tests are >99% accurate, cheap (couple of dollars) and readily accessible. To me, it sort of seems they tried to reinvent the wheel. Surely the market for a new pregnancy test is limited as is the need for higher accuracy. Their time/money could have been better spent developing tests for conditions that have no testing, inaccurate testing, expensive testing, etc. Are they struggling to identify new applications for their self-testing IP? Also, whilst the Covid19 test currently has a high demand, if/when a vaccine is developed (maybe later this year), the demand for these tests will plummet and so will their revenue. As for their HIV test, I get that it has a place and will benefit a lot of people. But the Mylan badged test sells for as little as 5USD in various places around the world. Assuming AT1 gets $1 of that as a royalty, it needs to sell tens of millions to justify their current market cap of $160m. In the last 5yrs they have sold ~1m HIV tests and their cumulative lifetime revenue is barely in the millions - this indicates they generate minimal revenue from each test. Additionally, in western countries, people already get HIV tested as a part of STI checks - why pay more for an on-the-spot test when you still have to wait for the results for everything else? Where is the high-margin market coming from? In my mind, for AT1 to be a winner, it needs to develop a number of new tests for various conditions - the covid boom is short lived, the pregnancy test has a small market and I'm not convinced about the upside from the HIV test. Keen to hear your thoughts. Just offering a different point of view.
AT1 Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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