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clock Created with Sketch. 18/06/20
13:02
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Originally posted by SebbyV:
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Yes from a fundamental perspective I think it's still looking very strong - having said that, I'm fully expecting the markets to cop an absolute pounding at some point in the next 4-6 weeks. The news coming out of the US is delusional, bordering on the insane - approx. half the states now have cases increasing, with full blown outbreaks happening in the largest states by both population and GDP. Administration and numerous state governors saying all is fine and we're not locking down - already multiple cities have announced pauses on reopening or extended stay-at-home orders. It's very sad to see what's playing out over there, and regrettably it's just a matter of statistical extrapolation - with largely free movement between states, gatherings of all sizes allowed all over the place, turbo-charge events of Memorial Day events and civil riots, I fully expect many states will either be back in lock downs in about a month, or will continue to pay an extraordinary price. The markets are all priced to perfection, in possibly the least perfect economic situation in our lifetimes. I think reasonably we could easily see the BNPL stock prices halve from this point - not due to fundamentals, but when the roll gets going, it'll likely be brutal again. Wouldn't think retesting March lows, but you never know.
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Yep - this is all spot on. A client of mine is returning from the U.S shortly after being away for the last few months. He says the country is in absolute disarray. With many people they meet still saying Covid19 is a hoax....
