Slappi, i think you are confusing a number of issues. In relation to spruikers I agree, the henry Kayes of the world will always try to sell you an overvalued project.
And yes there are some people who invest in property have no idea.
But slappi, you are using all these arguements to justify a massive fall based on your 'historic average' stats promoted by Prof Keen.
At the end of the day unemployment will be a big factor and as the reports indicate the less skilled the more likely you will loose your job. But even the OECD reported an increase to 6%, not the 10% bounded around.
The compensating factor is that the government is taking action to making paying the mortgage easier. If the 3-4% mortgage rates evenuate, the previously stressed homeowner may have this pressure taken off. On a $400,000 loan a 4% rate is $16,000 or $320 a week in interest. This is extremelt affordable. And in a two income family, hopefully only one looses there job, should be able to make the payments. The real debt problem is the snow jobs that the Harvey normans of the world did to entice people to get the plasma etc on credit with GE at 25% PA, backdated to the date of the purchase if not paid on time. Again this could be centred on those who could control their spending by paying to much for their houses and getting all the mod cons
But I have never argued that the current crisis wont result in falls in prices, I have just argued that it wont be the 40% you and keen are pushing so hard.
Even if we have 20% which is a lot represents some $80,000 on a $400,000, while a lot not devasting. The US is having situations that banks cannot sell at any price and as you have read or heard, houses going for nil cost. the only thing i dont understand is that does this include the debt attaching or just the taxes payable to local government.
but slappi, I try to provide a view with reasoning but all you provide are articles out of the press, nothing original.
Slappi, you have indicated that you aint buying for 10 years based on your assumptions, please tell us your assumptions. Who knows you may convince us all.
But personally, I have debt and property, with the falls in interest rates I will be able to fund not just interest but the actually repayment, so even if the property is worthless, so long as it is rented, all debt will be paid off in 15 years. hoping fixing rates for 10 or 15 years at 4%.
