citigroup says gold could rise above $2000, page-7

TDA,

I must have a PHD in learning experiences judging by the number of failed investments I have made.

However the so called experts and comentators have consistently failed to forecast financial & commodity events. Lets have some examples

Up until March the experts were forecasting oil at $200 bbl due to unprecendented demand and dwindling supplies. So what happens oil crashes to $50. Whatever happened to peak oil?

Predictions for base metals were for a commodity super cycle where copper, nickel, lead, etc would be at all time highs for more than a decade. Lead would be needed for millions of Chinese & Indians as batteries as they progressed from bicycles to motor scooters to cars. What actually hapens is Lead crashed back to 50 cents/lb.

Nickel would be needed for the massive skyscrappers and buildings that was needed for the biggest urbanisation ever in human history in China. What happens is Nickel crashes fom over $20/lb to $4.50/lb.

Zinc would be needed for the massive infrastructure expansion in China (power stations, bridges, etc). What happens is Zinc crahses to such a low price that 70% of Zinc mines are unprofitable.

Coal & Iron ore. The experts said China would require more steel in the next 20 years than had been produced in the last 100 years worldwide. So spot prices for iron ore & coal go into free fall and even BHP admits there is a major problem.

Soft commodities like wheat, corn, etc also go into freefall even though the experts predicted unprecedented demand for grains.

Platinum suffered its biggest rout of all time falling from over $2,000/pz to $800/oz in a couple of months as expected demand evaoporated. Silver did litle better also falling by 60%. Gold only feel by 35%.

Even the infamous analyst who revised his value of AIO causing a crash in AIO's SP to 68 cents had previuolsy issued over a dozen straight BUY recomendations for AIO.

The ASX has suffered its 2nd worst crash in history. The US market is also experiencing it's 2nd worst cash ever. Back in March the experts were saying the subprime crisis was over. How wrong can you be.

Also remember only 6 months ago when the experts were calling for the AUD to be at parity or above with the USD. Now thw AUD has crashed to 65 cents and currency markets have extreme volatility where for example the AUD/USD rate may range 10% in 24 hours!

I wont go on about house prices, spiralling US govt debt, Govt bailouts, etc, etc

The point is experts/comentators have consistently got it wrong so don't put too much stake in any forecasts they make.