I just ran the numbers. I used a 10% discount rate though, and included all measured, indicated and inferred (U/G) resources - but did not include Fines. I allowed for capital costs, 30% tax rate, 1Mtpa, and got an NPV of $232,000,000. Obviously a lot of work needs to be done to prove Carlton up - I worked out that if all the resources are proved/measured there it would have an NPV of approx 85m. I used the Net Sales numbers to calculate it less the break even stats mentioned in one of the explanatory notes for BP33 and Carlton, and did a bit of reasonable estimating for Grants. As with yours, it is all guess work.
I thought that US$744 was a bit bullish as well, but when you have a look at the predicted sales data on page 30 (that looks about right) over the 8 years from 2022, and take the average you get US$748. So perhaps it is reasonable?
CXO Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
