Hey Pete,
let you in on something. The all ords, dow etc are market wide indexes. If you look at it closely it is broken into various other indexes, one of which is utilities.
Now if you accept the market knows what it is doing then BBI should track this index regarding rises and falls. However, BBI has fallen over 70% to this index for reasons already posted (BNB perceived association, refinance risk, Beppa conversion prior to annoucement).
Therefore, as the risks reduce (asset sales, Beppa announcement) the stock price should return to the index. The utilities index is down by my estimates 25-30%, not the 90+% BBI has fallen. This means as it reduces risk the share should return to the index, there is potential greater upside, regardless of DOW etc.
These are my views and as always I could be wrong.
Cheers
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