Two weeks ago I suggested that markets were at a crossroads. S&P is still caught in this same relatively tight band – unable to break clearly. At the same time, this index is still playing with the gap it left a few weeks back which is acting as strong resistance.
Looking across other indices, the NASDAQ comp has pushed through to new highs as the money runs into this section. But at the same time, the lower capitalised section making up the Russell 2000 continues to struggle. We have such a bifurcated market in New York at the moment with a small number of tech type stocks pushing sharply higher and the rest of the market locked in a fairly tight range. But at the end of Thursday’s trading last week, a number of the trading patterns looked very worrying. If New York investors don’t come back with renewed vigour this week then the market will roll over sharply.
But at the end of each week when I update my long term Trannies chart, I feel a bit like the markets are frozen in some sort of time warp as this index creeps across the page looking as though it is completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top pattern that was started in 2014. The problem is that I have no idea how much longer it is going to take to complete the picture. But if this is what the market is suggesting, the outlook longer term would be dreadful. Hopefully it isn’t but best to tuck the idea away for those times when sentiment becomes too extreme on the bullish side of the equation.
And when I talk about long term patterns – do not forget the huge pattern that some of our banks formed – particularly Westpac – but eventually that played out with a vengeance when the bottom fell out of the market in February.,
For at least a couple of years I have had a target on gold of $1800. Each day I take the ***** World price range and this week it scored a high of $1791.10 – only needed another $8.90 to have a celebration!! I mentioned last week that it is silver that is taking my attention at the moment. If it could break topside out of this huge resistance zone, then the sky would be the limit on both gold and silver. So far it hasn’t been successful. Will give it a bit more time.
In the meantime, the XJO is still trying to improve having had a couple of back to back good days. But as usual, we are going to be governed again this week by what is happening offshore.
Reading some of the comments regarding the markets both here and overseas of recent times I am reminded of that saying that came from a movie and which was so popular in the eighties – Greed is Good….
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