"The oil price will probably settle between $30 - $32 over the next 3 - 6 months imo."
What do you base this probability on?
I have posted these many times before...
Oil Break-Even Prices (5 Jan 08)
Nation US$/Barrel
Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33
Would you expect Saudi Arabia, worlds largest producer, to keep supplying the world with the only export commodity they have, for no profit?
Ahhh yes, I can see it now, the Saudi benevolent society...we've made enough money over the years..we'll give the rest away at cost, no problem!
has ndo gone ex dividend today?, page-14
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