BPT Tea leaves analysis, page-520

Rather than looking at the small moves in the oil price right now I think its better looking at what else will move the share price.

For me the key thing to watch will be the 4th Quarter report which is due out on 22nd July followed by the Full year Results due out on 17th August.
The full year results will be very good and I suspect the 4th quarter production and revenue will not be as bad as the market is expecting due to the fixed priced gas contracts.

I expect the 2020/21 Production guidance will be down from 2019/20 due to less Capex spend but even with reduced production of say 25Mboe and current oil/Gas prices I think the Company can still generate an NPAT of $270-320M for 2020/21 and still generate surplus cash.

I think the likely very good full year result and the hopefully positive outlook for 2020/21 will be the catalyst to move the share price sharply higher over the next two months.

Of course if the stock market crashes again that will hit the share price or oil price jumps $10-$15 which is what some analysts are predicting then that will send the share price substantially higher but I think its more likely to be the full year results and outlook for 2020/21 that will make the big impact.

At the current share price I think this is a low risk play compared to many other stocks on the asx.
There are not that many quality stocks out there with such a strong balance sheet and the ability to still generate surplus cash and a decent bottom line profit even when times are tough.