what the hell is wrong with this stock, page-12

I agree PortfolioPlus.

I get the maths Watford. What I dont understand is why you think the maths alone will somehow make this trade work out.

The problem is that they only work out if the current issues are a temporary setback and the businesses underlying fundamentals are such that the shareprice will rebound. That is not the case with TIM.

1/ Timbercorps business model is dead. D. E. A. D.

2/ Its desperate search for an alternative agricultural business model has produced no results - nor is it likely to. Only the tax based debauchery that was agricultural MIS could provide the willing punters and gross fee base that TIM required to feed its operating costs.

3/ TIM arguably has (maybe now had) one of the best Treasury operations in Australia and that was well and good as a Funds manager in the good times and with a healthy balance sheet but these are not the good times and nor are they likely to be any time soon. TIM's balance sheet, well, is disaster area too harsh a term?

So, the maths only is relevant if TIM is likely to pull off a Lazarus.

Sadly, I think the debt burden will have TIM more likely to suffer the outcome of a skier in an avalanche.