The Future?, page-170

If Australia goes all EV overnight, we need more power generation, just a thought.



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The ICE age is over: Why battery cars will beat hybrids and fuel cells

At the turn of the 20^thcentury, three types of self-propelled vehicles were competing (in roughly equal numbers) for the consumer’s attention. These three were (a) steam, (b) electric and (c) internal combustion (petrol/diesel) vehicles.

It is now history that by choosing the internal combustion engine (ICE) for mass production, Henry Ford set the agenda for the next 100 plus years.

But the ICE age is now ending, and this time we have four competing types of EV to choose between.

So, will one dominate (as per what happened last time) or will all four ‘live happily together ever after’?

Summing up – FCEVs rely on a fuel source that is inefficient to produce, inherently more expensive per km travelled than either of electricity for a BEV or fossil fuels, and are more complex to build than any of the other three contenders.

However, they are widely touted as a ‘green’ vehicle as their only emission is water vapour, plus FCEVs have strong proponents within the auto industry.

My suggestion is they are likely to outlast HEVs and PHEVs for cars, but their economics will eventually result in them fading away as consumers select cheaper, easier to refuel and greener alternatives.

(Much as the electric vehicle faded to a corner as the ICE via the Model T Ford became dominant).

4. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

So we are down to one.

Does the BEV have what it takes to win out?

One pointer is the phrase “follow the money”.

Vast sums are currently being spent on lithium battery factories and development: much more than what is going into fuel cell or hybrid technologies.

Another is that EV recharging networks are being rolled out in ever increasing numbers (overseas that is – Australia is still lagging way behind), unlike hydrogen.

Yet another indicator is the speed advantage that hydrogen refuelling currently offers over electric charging is disappearing.

A 150kW DC recharging standard has recently been agreed and is being rolled out – and soon to come is a 300 or 350kW DC fast charge standard.

By the time any serious hydrogen network could begin to be rolled out – the fast charge electric system will be ubiquitous and just as quick.

This not to say that the BEV will have it all its own way. Some pundits suggest that fuel cell technology is better suited to long distance heavy haulage, and/or off-grid applications.

However, when it comes to trucking – Tesla are doing their best to prove that wrong.

Tesla is proposing to begin production in 2019 of a 36 tonne capacity BEV truck that will have a range of 800 km, and an 80% recharge time of 30 min.

Those figures (if realised) would put paid to the idea of hydrogen becoming a player in that market. In relation to off-grid applications for hydrogen (such as farm machinery or shipping) – these will still have to contend with the hydrogen availability and cost issues.

(Which, in an ever decreasing range of possible uses for hydrogen fuel, are unlikely to be easily solved).

Perhaps PHEV or HEV technologies running on biofuels would be more likely contenders for such off-grid uses?

In conclusion – I foresee a future that plays out in much the same way as what happened in the early 20^thcentury.

The manufacturers will follow the lead of the foremost player (last time – Ford, this time – Tesla) and HEV, PHEV and FCEV technologies will fall away as the economics of mass producing BEVs overwhelms the others.

HEV, PHEV and FCEV may still end up as niche players somewhere (just like steam did in trains, and electric vehicles did in minor applications throughout the 20^thcentury).

And who knows: perhaps in the 2080’s or 90’s, a film will be released entitled “Who killed the hydrogen car”!

https://thedriven.io/2018/11/14/the...attery-cars-will-beat-hybrids-and-fuel-cells/


New Goulburn battery beats grid upgrade for electric vehicle ultra rapid charging

Australian fast charging company ChargeFox has installed a sizeable battery installation in Goulburn to support its new ultra-rapid electric vehicle charger, as well as earning income from providing frequency services to the grid, and saving money by avoiding a grid upgrade.

“In Goulburn we have a 180kW connection to the grid, which powers about 30kW of constant load at the service station, leaving 150kW for the chargers. We’ve installed 750kW of Tritium chargers there, with about 50kW of solar coming,” says Evan Beaver, head of charging at ChargeFox.

“So using a battery in Goulburn has reduced our installation costs, reduced charging site electrical costs, increased the use of renewables and improved grid stability,” Beaver says. “The costs are a touch high to use them everywhere right now, but I can see batteries getting used in this way more and more in coming years.”

PowerTec managing director Michael Reiner Jansen said in a LinkedIn post that the battery primarily serves as an EV charging buffer, allowing for ultra-fast charging despit the weak grid connection, FCAS services, and back-up power for the site.

https://thedriven.io/2020/05/07/new...de-for-electric-vehicle-ultra-rapid-charging/


Floating renewable battery launched to recharge boats in Amsterdam Port

Skoon Energy and the Port of Amsterdam launched last week a mammoth battery in Amsterdam which sits atop a barge and is powered by local renewable energy.

While neither company has provided detailed specifications for the battery, it will be charged from renewable energy sources such as a 27 MW wind farm, located at Ruigoord in Afrikahaven in the Port of Amsterdam, and jointly owned between the Port of Amsterdam and Danish utility Eneco.

Other renewable energy sources that will power the new floating battery include solar panels from rooftops in the port area and energy from biomass by waste-to-energy company AEB.

“We have started this project with Skoon, as it is in line with our ambition of creating partnerships that will help us become a zero-emission Port,” explained Koen Overtoom, CEO at Port of Amsterdam in a statement.

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“Together with Skoon and Zoev City, the floating battery will also be deployed in the city centre of Amsterdam, when it is not needed to deliver power to river cruise vessels at berth.”

A floating electric battery could be particularly helpful in the Port of Amsterdam and inner Amsterdam waterways, particularly in April and May when the number of river cruises docked in Amsterdam is at its peak during local tulip season.

As it stands, current grid connections do not provide sufficient capacity to meet the power needs of the many cruise vessels which, in turn, requires some to recharge their batteries using noisy diesel generators, which in turn creates noise pollution and harmful emissions.

The new Skoon Energy floating battery will avoid both emissions and noise pollution, and also provide balance for the city’s electricity grid.

“The cases for mobile batteries are endless,” said Peter Paul van Voorst tot Voorst, founder of Skoon in a statement.

https://thedriven.io/2020/03/10/flo...to-recharge-electric-boats-in-amsterdam-port/


Nissan sees Leaf as home energy source, says Tesla big battery “waste of resources”

Owning an electric car in Australia could become much more than just driving from A to B with a reduced carbon footprint, according to Nissan Australia which launched the new version of the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle in Melbourne on Wednesday.

Nissan confirmed at the launch that the new Leaf, with a 40kWh battery, will be a V2H (vehicle-to-home) energy asset – meaning that, unlike other electric vehicles, it will have the capability to charge your home (subject to further testing with Australia’s network owners and operators).

Called bidirectional charging, the 40kWh Leaf (and for that matter the 62kWh version which is not yet slated for an Australian release) essentially has the capability to become your personal, massive, mobile battery.

This means it will be able to not only store energy by plugging into your home, workplace or other destinations such as shopping centres with free charging, or from DC fast-chargers – it will be able to serve that energy back to your home.

And it could be available to use in Australia within six months.

The technology is already being used in countries like Japan, says Nissan’s global head of electric vehicles Nic Thomas, who attended the event while visiting from Japan.

As Tim Washington, CEO of charging solutions provider Jetcharge put it when speaking at the event, “Cars will be an energy asset first, and a mobility asset second.”

“What I mean by that is you are going to use your cars probably more as batteries than as vehicles.

“As we know vehicles are parked 90% of the time – that is one of the criticism levelled at cars. But what if they are the most efficient asset that you have because it’s doing work even when its parked?

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“That’s when bidirectional charging comes into play.”

The lower driving range of the 40kWh Nissan Leaf – up to 270km when driving in city conditions according to the US EPA rating system – is more than suitable if your usual daily driving needs including getting to work, or the shops, and back again.

The rest of the time, it can instead serve another purpose – becoming an energy source for your home.

Otherwise known as V2H (vehicle-to-home), the technology has the potential to not only help the consumer save money by either charging from rooftop solar for free during the day then using that energy to power lights and appliances at night, or charging at off-peak rates overnight for use during the day.

It also has the potential to smooth out the “duck curve” that is associated with large penetration of rooftop and large scale solar.

“In the middle of the day now we have this influx of solar energy,” explains Thomas. “The way we distribute and consume energy is fundamentally inefficient … what we need is flexibility in the system.”

“It’s great that we’ve invested all this money in renewable energy but fundamentally we’re wasting most of that energy because its all being generated in the middle of the day when we don’t really need it.

“What the system needs is batteries. The system needs storage.”

“If we can level out those peaks by absorbing the energy in the middle of the day and the middle of the night when its much more available and give it back to service those peaks then we can make the system much more efficient.”

“When you’re driving it, and it’s a fantastic, fun car to drive – when you’re not driving it, it’s a battery.”

Controversially, Thomas says that installations such as the grid connected Tesla big battery at Hornsdale in South Australia is a waste, despite the fact that its performance – both for the grid and financially – has been widely admired.

“It’s a complete waste of resources because what we can do is have cars that are also batteries and those cars are parked most of the time,” Thomas said.

For those considering buying a home battery, the 40kWh Leaf offers up to 4 times the energy storage capability.

For an average home using 15-20kWh of power a day, it could provide up to two days of power in the case of extreme blackouts such as the situation in South Australia that led Tesla to strike a deal with the South Australian government to install a big battery.

When will Australians be able to buy into this new way of using cars as an “energy asset”?

With demo models of specialised charging boxes already on the way to Australia, Nissan Australia’s manager electrification and mobility Ben Warren says its just a matter of testing the technology and ensuring it is suitable for Australian requirements.

“The good news that while this takes a little bit of time, the vehicle we see today is capable from the factory right now – it is future proofed for not only the EV world but also the future energy ecosystem,” says Warren.

The Driven understands that testing is being conducted by Delta, with monitoring specialist Solar Analytics also playing a role.

(Listen here for our Solar Insiders podcast where this is discussed).

Expected to be available to use within six months, after the purchase and installation of the home charging box, it will be a reality sooner than robot taxis.

In time, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) may also become available in Australia – however this will require more testing and regulatory investigation before being accepted.

https://thedriven.io/2019/07/11/nis...ce-says-tesla-big-battery-waste-of-resources/


Battery powered home and car: The fossil fuel era is fading

Around the world, and despite all the noise in Australia about its big battery at Hornsdale, Tesla is best known for its electric cars, which have become so desirable they have turned the $1 trillion auto industry on its head.

But as founder and CEO Elon Musk said in the company’s recent results briefing, energy – another $1 trillion global industry – actually offers more potential.

“(Energy storage) is going to be a gigantic business,” he told the analysts, who were 95 per cent focused on EVs.

And that puts Tesla in a unique position and with an engagement potential with consumers unmatched by any others – even if some like VW aspire to it.

No other company in the world can offer a suite of products that combines energy generation (rooftop solar), energy storage (batteries), and transport (electric vehicles and charging stations) under a single brand.

What is Tesla going to do with that capability?

Will it only seek to dominate the individual market it is playing in, or will it push further into infrastructure and evolve into some a giant utility?

It hasn’t really said.

Right now, it is busy enough negotiating the tricky transition, and the enormous capital needs and cash flow challenges, from start-up to major manufacturer; building giga-factories in different continents and learning the fine art of mass production.

On the side, however, the company is also promoting the concept of the Tesla “eco-system,” which may point a way to the future.

And though Tesla prides itself on spending zilch on advertising, it is in the midst of a marketing campaign – “Tesla Destinations” – which invites journalists to experience this “ecosystem” first-hand, and which opens up a competition to all to win a chance to do the same.

RenewEconomy was the first invited and did not need to travel far – just 15 minutes up the road to a “prestige” home in the Byron hinterland, equipped with stunning views, luxurious furnishings and appliances, sunken baths, an 18m pool, a 10kW solar system, two Tesla Powerwall battery storage systems, and the use of a Model X electric vehicle for the weekend.

And, of course, there is an App, which provides information about the power generated, stored and delivered to and from the home, and the state of charge and use of the battery in the car.

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That, for a start, is a different way of thinking about energy.

I suspect that incumbent energy utilities, and oil companies, have been able to get away with their outrageous pricing and gaming of the markets – for years, if not decades – because consumers have been kept in the dark.

Traditionally, they have seen their bills only once a quarter in the case of a house, with little or no visibility of what was used and when; and maybe once a week in the car (or whenever it is that tank has to be filled or topped up).

With an App, it’s immediate, and it invites the consumer to think differently about what they are using and why, and from where they are sourcing it. Is it from the consumers’ own generation, or the grid?

Is it green, black or brown?

And it offers control – one click and you can arbitrage the energy market, switch off appliances, and perform any number of tricks (useful and not-so), with the car.

When you think about it, that presents an existential threat to the incumbent utilities and transport fuel companies. This is a major leap for the promised democratisation of energy.

For a start, it invites consumers to think about energy efficiency – something the incumbents have fought so hard against. It also invites them to think more seriously and creatively about demand management, another essential tool for a renewables-based grid, and another bête-noire of the incumbents.

Truth is, the fuel companies know that their current business models are doomed, at least in the land-transport market. That’s because they know the transition to EVs, and maybe to fuel cell vehicles for larger modes of transport, is inevitable.

For the utilities, the door is not quite shut, or even half closed, thanks to the fact that they preside over an essential service with little discretion on the part of the consumer and with near total regulatory capture.

Still, none of them can see what the model of the future looks like – Australian-style retailers in particular. The business case for the biggest part of their operations – burning coal and gas – is declining rapidly. The rest of it is about packaging bills to consumers. There’s a lot of people who can do that.

Still, that may be a few years away, and there is no doubt that experiencing the joys of a prestige property like Amileka, and the delights of the $250,000 Model X, reinforce the impression that this is – for the moment – something only accessible to the well off.

That, however, would misjudge the trends. The cost of solar (which Tesla sells in the US, but not yet in Australia) is plunging and readily affordable for nearly all – even more so, given state and federal incentives.

Battery storage costs are coming down quickly, too, even if the retail price is not. But new incentives will encourage more products and local manufacturing, and these too will fall quickly. And so will the cost of EVs – some say cost parity within five years – in Europe, it has already arrived, albeit courtesy of some tax incentives.

So, what does a Tesla ecosystem look like?

In the case of Amileka, the undeniably glorious holiday rental that was our base for three days, the 10kW solar installation and the two 13.5kWh Powerwall batteries are pretty much sufficient to do the job.

Amileka is not small – it is a five-bedroom home, with a media room, two kitchens, three bathrooms and an 18-metre pool. But the solar and storage system means it still can account for 90 per cent of its own needs without drawing from the grid.

It also provides back-up in the case of a grid outage, and there is a thing called “Storm Watch”, which means the system will prioritise storage to ensure enough back-up if a major weather event is approaching.

The curve ball in this case is thrown by the Model X, a mighty big machine with 100kWh of battery and – because it is big and heavy, and we couldn’t get over the delights of its acceleration, and my partner likes Arctic conditions inside – it has a hunger to match.

Over three days – Friday afternoon to Monday morning – we added in 170kWh to the car.

The first 70kWh because it was on a low charge when we got it, the remaining 100kWh because that is what we used in our 403km of trips around the Byron hinterland.

All but a few kWh, added as we experienced the joy and convenience of dining and charging at a local eatery, came from the house.

Of course, that is beyond the resources of this house’s rooftop solar and battery storage, although it was interesting to note that the battery was perfectly capable of meeting the Model X’s charging needs (7kW) and the home during the evening.

And here’s the thing.

Not all EVs will be as big or heavy on consumption as the Model X.

An average daily trip in Australia is around 40-50kms. So in Model X, that might need 10kWh of topping up, or in the case of a smaller and cheaper EV, closer to 5kWh.

You see what the potential is here?

A household solar array and battery storage system that can provide not just for the household needs, but for the car as well.

And that can be a two-way street.

If the home solar and battery don’t have enough charge, the EV can go down to the nearest fast-charger and top up – and bring it back.

A battery the size of the Model X can keep a regular house going for nearly a week, and one like this holiday home for a few days.

Tesla have not indicated if or when they will offer such vehicle-to-grid technology, but when it does happen it offers all sorts of options and scenarios: from consumers taking their homes and cars off grid; to an expanded distributed energy system where EVs offer significant storage and other services to the grid, and where the centralised fossil fuel generators are used and needed less.

That’s what makes experiencing the Tesla eco-system so interesting, and exciting.

It may only be within the reach of the well-off for now, but if offers a clear vision of the future – and one that is approaching fast.

As for the Model X, well it is a stunning machine – as you’d expect from the price, and our road test will appear shortly in our EV-focused website, The Driven.

https://thedriven.io/2019/02/15/battery-powered-home-and-car-the-fossil-fuel-era-is-fading/