DXN 6.90% 6.2¢ dxn limited

This could Multibag .................., page-107

  1. 1,311 Posts.
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    In the interest of a little constructive debate here, I'll take the bait and ask

    "You DO realize charts are backwards looking only, and do not in any way, shape or form tell you what will happen in the future"


    What I mean by this... You've said the C&H played out nicely... That's well and good looking back at this retrospectively and stating that it followed XYZ technical indicator nicely - well of course, it already happened, and you can adjust XYZ to be whatever suits after the fact.

    Question is, could you state a C&H is playing out back around 16th April? I highly doubt it, you could say it was in a downward trend, consolidating before likely heading down further. So you can't really capitalise on this so called C&H.

    Next, you say consolidation around the 0.026 support level, before heading up on further news. Now I pose to you some other very viable scenarios:

    1) A fund manager has been watching the Edge Server space, saw the rise and subsequent fall and decides now is the best time to capitalise on this. Tomorrow they come in and want to buy a decent amount - thereby driving share price up as they make their purchase on the market (much like happened previously early June. Outcome = no consolidation as predicted by the charts

    2) News comes out today/tomorrow that DXN was successful in the EOI (or perhaps some other positive news unknown to the market). People start buying like crazy in anticipation that they will be successfull in the Tender. Outcome = price shoots up again and no consolidation as predicted by the charts.

    3) The investor who bought up big in early June, decides that after now sitting at almost 100% profit, decides to liquidate his position and drives price down, likely to go below your 0.026 support level. Outcome = no consolidation as predicted by the charts.


    Key point here, is that charts are backward looking and tell you what happened in the past, not what is going to happen in the future - as the future is unknown and any combination of events/news/actions can make anything happen.
 
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