Looks pretty simple to me. Shandong will keep matching/raising their offer to better Nord until someone drops out, something tells me SG aren't game players. They have come to buy and want to know where they stand. If SG don;t keep raising their bid, because Nord is an on-market TO offer SG risk losing shares to sellers into a superior offer. They can't afford to wait for a couple of months to make their next offer.
Nord however may take their time between making counters if they go higher, no rule saying you have to raise an offer quickly. Shandong cannot go unconditional until they get FIRB which we know is probably months away (although it might get fast tracked because FIRB have just been through the whole CDV, Namdini, gold consideration for Nord). Point SG's offer will doesn't lock up ownership for good like Nord's on-market buys do. Until SG go unconditional very few will accept the offer rather than just sell on-market. Holders that accept SG offer will get those shares posted back if SG fails to ultimately win the TO battle. SG will cancel their offer if Nord win and holders will then sell into Nord.
In short, unless a third party comes in it looks like SG have to keep bettering Nord until the end of Aug. Nord can pick and choose how quickly they counter any higher offer SG makes. GF will exercise their call option eventually and deliver to whichever party ends up going unconditional with best offer and gains control. 90c for CDV represents about 33% of 90% of the post-tax NPV5% from the DFS at $1750 gold. Paying 33% of an already discounted and post-tax NPV looks like a screaming bargain for 4.5M Oz of reserves (US$75/Oz Reserves) in a low risk project in a pretty safe jurisdiction. I can't explain why Nord or SG won;t bid CDV up to 90c, they could pay considerably more and still be buying a bargain.
CDV Price at posting:
68.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
