aud , page-64

No direction from the DOW... it was down then finished up.

Needs to have a clear break, to bring back confidence ie. above 9000

However commodities, gold and oil are up which means more currency risk back to the AUD.

So today it is a battle of the DOW vs. strong commodities, which is canceling out any decisive moves on the AUD.


In theory relative to the stock market:

# If Monday is a bull day (on stock mkt)- as it was, Tuesday is profit taking day (as it was), Wednesday is a V day (open low finish high- as it was), then in theory Thursday should be a bear day(as it looks like being), and Friday should be a supply day, opening low to rally late for the cycle again on the Monday.


I am still a bull, and think that what we will see is a strong close in the US on the Friday for another strong open on the Monday. With 9000 the all important breach.

Tonight the DOW might be down 1-2percent to accumulate the little boys money on the Friday open.

So it will be a good time to pick up a discount on the inevitable dip on the open of our market tomorrow. Looking at BHP and FMG as longs.

All that meaning in terms of the AUD... well I don't know, do I, but here is what I am looking for...

I would say it will continue to consolidate between 06550 and 6575 (being the new short term resistance) through the day, and break down a bit over night to 6490, although gold and oil may cap those falls if they remain strong.

What I am really lookng for is the Friday rally:
There will be a lot of pent up steam if the US does close up on the Friday, so a good 250-300 point move to 6800 by Monday night is on my radar.

So looking at support of 6490 around tomorrow morning to start going long, with 68 the target come tuesday.

Anyway I think that is enough ramblings to make me feel a bit better about holding any longs, and if I am wrong, then it would be great for someone to point out what I am not seeing, so as my mouth does not follow my money down the drain.

Good luck to all :0)