The RATIONAL behind "Monday video" and "announcement"
Probably most here now are waiting Monday wake up with two things:
a) an announcement informing a new expansion production deal LONZA-MSB giving room to produce in large scale
1- GVHD with soon expected final approval
2- COVID-Remstemcel-L if the trial comes with high levels of recovery
3- Prepare if the read outs heat failure indicates positive results
b) People also expect click the "TV" and watch a positive VIDEO and more clear details of such expansion agreement in the video that 1 week ago was informed
What is the rational of that ?
I play not with the "information". Very common I play with the "lack" of.
Obviously ,if we talk expansion of Lonza-MSB agreement we all probably agree that 1 week ago SI have the deal done, sign just drafting final wordings, adjusting few legal requests.
BUT...
But the announced loudly... wait next Monday.. He could stay silence, dont say anything. The idea to "excite " the market is not exactly what a CEO does and I'm witness how SI always act in absolutely fair manner and decent (as much a CEO of a BIO-Pharma can be)
Well..
He announced in antecipation that something will be announce.
That's pretty usual for any manners.
If its a price sensitive, he could not do that. If its not, why to create such excitement ? and why "prepare" the market for this video ?
The guy the filmed the video is now informed in advance of the contend. For sure somebody for the video also make some "make-up" in SI and another put the lights on , and like always the "secrecy" is not always so secret ,as much as all promise it is.
People that work years in daily basis in market always see movement prior announcements. Few scary just sell, some protect and short, some excite come and buy. Some punters just come and bet..
But here we have a second aspect.
We all probably agree that the read outs and the Covid trial are definetevely "late".
I read how modest another poster confess he "over estimate" the overwelming date and he agrees that "now" is coming the time. Another poster(the one that usually make long forecast about prices, started exactly one tread showing that 30/6 should be the time to announce.
Well..
on 20/7 nobody can claim lack of patients, in or out ventilators.
For sure next week is the week to receive an announcement about COVID or accept the idea that seriously the overwelming efficiency was not achieved.(or if will be,really impressive the delay under the guidance offer by company to have ALL 300 in 3-4 months. In 2 1/2 months is not too much expect 90 achieved the results.
Next Monday, should be absolutely an crazy situation if the first announcement comes COVID, because will give the idea that SI was aware that this is the date and the data is achieved, and as such he would be in breach of rules because he should announce immediately.
As such, i'm entitled to assume that MONDAY morning will NOT come any thing about COVID and probably also about readouts.
Remain just the ann. of Lonza and here comes the thing.
MSB raised capital 100M using thee COVID smoke to justify the money. But he did that without know if will be approved.
Now, come with a extension of manufacturing facilities just for GVHD sounds to "vamp" for third time and raise for third time and use the same reason to create a market fact.
Not good !
What remains, assuming nothing wrong in the video, is the video will be VERY SIMPLE without any major think just a normal update about how the facilities are being prepared for the case of approval of GVHD and how all teams there are "ready to.."
No announcement expected to comes together..(that is my view)
That is just my rational. I can be 100% wrong. But like always,.,, they never promise make any announcement Monday.. they just promise release a video.
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