In my mind, all this was and is expected. The best theory I have seen is that once EVs hit 5% penetration and have cost parity then there will be a rush as everybody (not just early adopters) would be mad not to buy an EV. I've referenced this before. My point is that the problem is not a question of uptake or demand but why car makers would be so stupid not move quickly towards parity (as you say this is mostly because of batt cost) - everyone was assuming the peleton would have chased Tesla by now...
If Tesla are indeed soon announcing they have reached parity then we will have a very short and steep move to EVs from that point. Contrary to current estimates less than 10 years and most cars will be EVs. There's also things that might speed the process up like autonomy, climate change and the impact of Covid on our climate change decisions.
i think Aus super have made the same mistake as me but are extremely bullish on the next 10 years.
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