I've been in since 5c. Needless to say it has been one of the best weeks on the market for me. A lot of new posters, a lot of new punters in. Have reduced to free carry, hope you enjoyed my shares!
Couple of things to consider:
1.
@hilly_sandman makes a good point. Cyber security is a fragmented industry and TNT is rolling them up. You achieve greater profitability through scale and cost synergies (reduction). The market loves a good acquisition strategy, Uniti UWL (telco), Wisetech WTC (logistics). You need a deal maker and Geoff Lord (+ JC) is exactly what is driving the execution.
2. TNT was actually in the dumps before the cyber hack. Chart was shit, no one wanted it. It was a hard hold as BNPL soared. The story needed to become mainstream and the cyber attack did just that. The thematic needed to capture the punter. The Scomo needed to announce it on mainstream television and put together a cyber defence package. The story is now clear, and moneyflow from the government is up for grabs. TNT's subsidiary companies hold lucrative federal government contracts across multiple agencies. They are a clear beneficiary to the increase in exposure and resourcing.
3. I agree with using a debt package to fund these acquisitions. Geoff Lord probably has had to the tits with share price under performance and potential dilution. Leveraging debt against profitability+ accretive earnings makes good business sense. Don't let any troll or mug punter tell you debt is bad. In this case, debt is good.
4. If you look at the technicals (price and volume), use other historical charts to map potential outcomes. 4 green candles with the last candle climaxing at the price top (19.5c) with the most volume in TNT's history. The market is simple, supply vs demand. Do not ignore 70mil shares worth of turnover demand. I've seen a lot of candles and that climax candle signifies a big re-rate play. Demand means money is entering the stock to drive prices up. Supply sticks to this demand at certain price levels, as in, people are holding not selling. TNT has demonstrated short sharp movements upwards throughout this week, supply is sticking. Yes you will get the cream get taken off the top (like today) but that's the laws of the market, to make profit. There may be a few days where further profit is taken. But do not underestimate that hot demand that has entered the stock.
So you have a clear cyber security thematic, a Chairman who is executing a further 2 acquisitions and historically high demand now entering TNT. Sit back and enjoy the ride.
