PNV - Chart, page-7296

Hi - lots of little errors in my post but hopefully it makes sense ("flora" instead of "fora"). I should have said the Coppock turned down, not negative, in early 2020.

With all due respect, I don't believe your thinking is the correct approach to take to technical analysis. I personally prefer to keep technical and fundamental analysis completely independent in my thoughts, that way if the two converge it gives me more confidence. In other words, I believe it is not helpful to let subjective observation enter into technical analysis. In my opinion overlaying normative logic onto positive observation does not work. Here is a practical example using your argument.

You suggest that the occurrence of a global pandemic caused the coppock indicator on the PNV chart to turn downward. The global pandemic is a "global" event. Therefore, by your logic we should expect to see the coppock indicator turn down for all shares around the same time. If I go through my own portfolio I can quickly verify that it is not valid to use this normative logic (Global pandemic -> coppock indicator should turn down).

Amazingly, the CZI share price already knew about the pandemic back in August 2019, which might explain why the CZI coppock turned upward soon after the pandemic hit.



What caused the Coppock indicator for PNV to turn down is the behaviour of the share price over the preceding fourteen months (as per the formula used of calculate it). The Coppock indicator is not an indicator of global viral activity as the CZI chart and the TBR chart (below) demonstrate.


Tribrune Resources Coppock Indicator has been rising since May 2019.

Humans generally feel uneasy or outright reject viewing the universe as a deterministic system. Somehow, we are happy to accept some phenomena as deterministic (such as the weather) but not necessarily other phenomena such as our own thoughts or "free will". My point is we expect the weather forecast to use a model based on a closed deterministic system and I argue that technical analysis should be used in the same manner.

For more thoughts around how the probability of future events can be seen to be predetermined, I suggest reading about the classic "Double-slit Experiment" in quantum physics. There are some good youtube videos explaining it.

That's my thinking. It may not work for others.