These are just my thoughts based on observations:-
(1) Approval in Australia should move the dial a little since it is Oncosil’s home market and will be of added importance because of Covid travel restrictions. Even though the Aussie market is small.
(2) FDA approval for bile duct cancer should be a better filip for the share price because the US is an important market and investors will view any FDA approval as an overall positive. The bile duct market is quite small but the US is an important market. Probably worth around $80 million US. So, in theory should add around 10 cents to the stock price.
(3) First revenues will be important as it moves the company from a speculative R&D company to a commercial stage bio medtech. How much this will add is difficult to say. With Covid it’s become even more difficult to quantify. Since the market dislikes uncertainty as much as the bubonic plague I’m not that optimistic that first revenues will change the dial much. It really comes down to how many patients are treated. Remember also that there will be very little reimbursement available from EU and UK hospitals. This is just a fact. Hence, Oncosil will rely heavily on the private payer market for first sales in Europe.
(4) The big share price uplift will come from the US where reimbursement will be more lucrative, provided of course that they get FDA approval. This will require a pivotal trial. Not clear how many patients will be required for the trial. Estimates range from 100-300 depending on a number of variables including data from EU adoptions. I suspect the data dossier that Oncosil can build up from EU sales will be instrumental for design of US pivotal study.
(5) To further support reimbursement from US adoptions of Oncosil’s platform technology much work is still required on health economic analysis. Oncosil will need to demonstrate satisfactory cost-benefit analysis to convince the reimbursing authorities with their own calculations.
Thumbs up if the forum likes the above analysis.
OSL Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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