COVID ARDS interim analysis, page-14

There is a dedicated follower of Athersys who goes by the handle CavScout1969 on the Yaboo message boards. And I do mean dedicated. I suspect CavATHXbull is the same individual. In any event this person seems to have a deep bitterness over the success of Mesoblast, which is a younger company, has three times the market cap, a deeper product pipeline and a superior IP position compared to Athersys. Not to mention that in the course of 4 short months Mesoblast has convincingly passed Athersys in the race to the FDA goal line for a C-19 ARDS therapeutic.

It's hard for dedicated Athersys longs to see that happen because up until April Athersys was the world leader in developing a cell-based ARDS therapeutic. Athersys spent millions and 3 1/2 years studying the illness with their MAPC cells only to watch a company that had never previously dealt with ARDS quickly outpace them in putting a program together to tackle the disease of the century, C-19.

Rather than trying to understand why Athersys has fallen behind so quickly and adjusting their investment accordingly, CavScout and his several followers find some perverse pleasure in posting any perceived Mesoblast hiccup on the MESO board on Yahoo... and now apparently they are invading the MSB board on HC. It's a curious psychological phenomenon, you be the judge. It's always good to hear from dissenters and heretics, but CavScout's posts go beyond constructive criticism, imo. There's an effort to sway unsuspecting investors, to seek self-justification.

The cuurent thread is twisted from previous analyses we have discussed indicating that evidence of overwhelming efficacy at the first interim readout will be more easily seen if enrolled patients have a high risk of mortality. In other words, it will be an easier task to show overwhelming efficacy with just 90 patients if the mortality rate in the placebo group is in the 60% range as opposed to the 10% range. It's possible rem-L is highly effective in patients with a wide range of expected mortalities, but it will be easier to demonstrate with small trial numbers in the high risk-of-mortality group. The trial coordinators know this and CavATHXbull has no foundation for the enrollment assumptions he makes in his post. Based on experience I would take anything he says with a grain of salt. He regularly shoots himself in the foot with his posts on Yahoo.

And if anyone is tempted to invest in Athersys, I would be careful. Their MAPC cells appear to be weak, management has never worked out an adequate dose-response curve, rather than controlling its own destiny the company is looking for salvation from BARDA and a partner in Japan, its Macovia trial for C-19 ARDS does not have a US partner and appears stuck in phase 2, and its non-C-19 programs have probably been delayed by the virus. I recommended selling ATHX on April 9. CavScout and followers advised the opposite and continue to do so while periodically "swing trading" MESO. Look at the charts of the two companies since that date and decide whether you want to give credence to the founder of this thread. The Mesoblast "swing" is getting away from them while ATHX has been stalled in the doldrums. glta