AGL 1.91% $10.66 agl energy limited.

Ann: AGL FY20 Results & FY21 Earnings Guidance, page-24

  1. 712 Posts.
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    Although tempting to buy on the dip ... do not ignore today's sharp price drop - there is a reason for that - look into the report again and you will see plenty of warning statements:
    "..Market and operating headwinds to AGL’s margin from the maturing of lower cost gas supply contracts and sharp falls in wholesale prices for electricity and renewable energy certificates [...] depreciation expense will again be higher following the completion of recent capital investment programs and insurance, regulatory and compliance costs continue to rise. COVID-19 will lead to higher expected credit losses from customer hardship and potentially increased operating costs to ensure safe and reliable continued operation at AGL’s generation plan [...] Underlying Profit after tax to be between $560million and $660million in FY21. "
    ---
    As for cash management - planing paying special div when there is so much debt ? Come on - pay the debt first to the and then think of dividends. And ROE - has dropped to just 10% recently ! It is another warning sign---

    So having 2.5bln debt , profit to drop by approx 50%, plenty of headwinds ... risky buy even at current price. Might jump temporarily - good luch to those buying now , but longer term it is not really such a great investment.

 
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