Speaking of probabilities: "A recent review of more than 850 wildcat wells - all drilled after geochemical surverys - finds that 79% of wells drilled in positive anomalies resulted in commercial oil and gas discoveries."
Therefore the chances of getting no result twice in a row is 21% x 21% = 4.41% of PEP11 being unsuccessful twice in a row.
Hence, the chance of finding something is 79%.
6 months from now, page-12
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