CMR 0.00% 15.0¢ compass resources limited

u really have to laugh at the comedy here, page-9

  1. 2ic
    5,900 Posts.
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    Unambiguously good news for shareholders! I have been suprised at the angst and ill-feeling shown on this thread towards GT given he probably could have pitched the coversion at mid 20's with the same gun pointed at your heads.

    While I could only speculate on why GT and HNC chose to take their foot off CMR's throat the fact remains that their note conversion into shares at 42c was a magnanomous act of support and generosity. At first glance it says four things; Cornells was not interested in a deal, negative cashflow concerns about CMR as a going concern, they feel some obligation to do the righty given they both sold shares for big profits early on (GT especially), and want the market's support going forward.

    The release clearly indicated that the interest bill on the con notes was an added burden CMR coouldn't service so conversion now helps keep the company out of administraion. Perhaps they sit beneath Cornells as subordinated creditors and feared administration would see Cornells take the project at fire sale price with nothing left for them. Facing this possible outcome their $37M is already sunk and survival is paramount, even if they get less of the company.

    The valuation of 22c was clearly designed to make the dilution more palatible for existing shareholders.... if you think 42c is cheap then buy some at 20c on the market! The most important thing is that over half the con notes overhanging the share price have been removed. The release also indicates that more funds will be required for working capital moving forward. No one was going to tip in more money with $80M of con note diltuion hanging over CMR's head (except maybe Oly). How could GT even do a capital raising dog and pony show when he stood to gain more of the company the lower the share price sank? No, the only chance for credibility and to raise more funds was to put his skin back in the game at a share price above the market. Now management's interest is aligned with shareholders, as is traditional, and motivated to move the share price up or lose the investment as well.

    Similar situation with HNC. Perhaps they aren't feeling so flush as in the AII days and need to keep the current CMR investment vehicle and relationship ticking over for some time to come? Maybe they cannot afford to bank roll a buyout of Cornell's $40M debt, more working capital, a takeover, the ongoing DFS and Sulphides development by them selves right now?

    Cornell's con notes still represent another massive dilution coming and they will hold the share price back via on-market sales of shares or just due to perception of overhang. It suits their purpose to keep the share price low as it means they get more of the company swapped for the debt. 42c is a long term price target now and it requires a turn-around in metal prices and demostrated positive operational cash flow. In this market it will be a hard slog going through all the dead bodies to get up their and with more cap raisings probable I wonder who will step in and buy at higher prices who haven't already filled their boots at the lower prices?

    Still dilution has been minimised and hope exists that the remaining debt can be converted at reasonable prices leaving something on the table for existing shareholders. GT has left the life raft and strapped himself to the mast with the rest and I suggest boquets not bricks might be appropriate for the EGM.

    Goodluck
 
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