Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

MSB

3.41%

99.0¢ mesoblast limited

MESO Nasdaq update, page-1006

First 1006 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
bundeenabuoy

54 Posts.

3

15/08/20

10:27

Post #: 46561428
Share

Originally posted by mja: ↑

My impression was a lot of profit taking in context of a fearful event (35% decline earlier in the week) and a few sleepless nights. Many retail investors likely reduced holdings, as they are overestimating probability FDA does not approve for on label prescribing, and are worried they may wake up to a 25-35% decline if FDA does not approve.

Many traders may have had a 5% stop and woke up to a 20% gap down, so less speculators in the stock as this is not a stock they want to speculate in going forward after being burnt.

Most long-term holders were already heavily invested and so only a small amount of topping up. Many would be investors do not want to pay 50% more than the could have bought MSB for earlier in the week. Larger funds will have to get the analysts to review and provide a recommendation. Many analysts will overestimate the chance of FDA not approving. As if they state it is almost a 100% chance of approval given 9:1 with Advisory Committee, and it is not approved they are in the dog box and can forget about promotion.

These were the drivers on Friday. I would estimate the chance of FDA approval at 98-99%. So I would expect MSB to drift upwards, and should cross $5 early next week. Eventually, those not fully up to speed with MSB will see that FDA approval is a very, very high probability event and will see that acute GVHD underwrites MSBs present value and the accumulation will be begin in earnest. Once MSB gets FDA approval (assuming this happens), revenue models can be created, including probable remestemcel use in more markets eg Europe.

In my opinion Friday was a great day to accumulate, as MSB has been significantly de-risked. After a 9:1 recommendation, can anyone see the FDA not approving a treatment for innocent children who have no other option. This is not a treatment that anyone on the street would not want to be approved or people may have an underlying bias against. I'm sure people can think of expensive treatments for self inflicted/ acquired diseases that many in the public think should not be funded as their actions led to their predicament (not that I would agree as everyone makes mistakes). But, it is hard to argue that children who through no fault of themselves have a life threatening illness should not receive an available treatment.

Expand

I am long term holder but I have been sure before. I lost heavily on Getswift and Bigin.
You can argue logically the FDA will approve. My only worry is that the bigphamas will see MSB as life threatening to them. They will do everything legally and illegally they can do to stop approval. Should we be concerned or am I way off the mark?

MSB Price at posting: $4.70 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

AML

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

STX

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

RDN

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

There are more pages in this discussion • 4,434 more messages in this thread...

First 1006 Last

Add MSB (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 99.0¢		Change -0.035(3.41%)		Mkt cap ! $1.130B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.03	$1.04	96.5¢	$8.837M	8.885M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	59782	99.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
99.5¢	26617	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	59782	0.990
1	10000	0.980
1	20000	0.975
19	191088	0.970
5	91150	0.965

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.995	26617	2
1.000	127185	8
1.005	61027	3
1.010	5000	2
1.015	7142	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 24/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

MSB (ASX) Chart

MESO Nasdaq update, page-1006

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

MESO Nasdaq update, page-1006

Top Stories

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News