from another view, page-11

there is no way a rights issue could be got away here. No chance whatsoever. 2 things are going to happen IMO:

1. The BNBG and similar type noteholders will get offered equity, on a take it or leave it basis. There is a possibility this equity may have a higher place in the pecking order over ordinary shares (eg a preference share of some sort that ranks ahead on a wind up). Just guessing at this point, but there has to be incentive for BNBG holders to agree to a swap and just giving out plain ordinary shares will make them very disgruntled.

2. Banks may take on the preferred equity in 1, or perhaps ask for an even higher level of equity than the bondholders, as would be their right to do. I mean you can hardly blame them for not wanting to give up their priority when they have priority over everyone already.

3. The ordinary shareholders are going to get very very diluted, at least 10:1. All this talk of NTA of $5-6 a share has been piffle all along. Even after a debt for equity swap, the very best NTA one might hope for is 30-40 cents a share and they shares would trade well below that in any case.

The banks do seem to want to play a long game with BNB because the short game of putting it under would be extremely painful for the lending banks. It does seem to appear that the banks are amenable to this.

WHy anyone would have wanted to buy the ords at 30-40 cents when you could buy these notes at $5, well that just defies logic to me.

It will be interesting to see how the satellites react tomorrow. Hold on to your hats.