It's hard to tell... I'd love to see a chart with the hourly spot and forward prices mapped - but haven't been able to find one - to see just how often it's dipping into backwardation...
It's quite reflected on the GOFO:
http://www.lbma.org.uk/?area=stats&page=gofo/2008gofo
But take a look - it remains pretty dang close even by that measure...
NOtice the 12 months figure which has been steadily declining all last year.
